5-15-15 – Climate Change Prediction Failures

posted by Rob Roper

As the energy bill faces a last minute kerfuffle in the Senate, and I hear Rep. Tony Klein of the House Energy Committee saying on the Mark Johnson Show that we’re losing time before climate disaster strikes, it might be worth taking this extra moment to remember some of the predictions “97%” of the scientist have made over the past several decades.

Here a few points — culled, edited and editorialized on — from a great article by Alex Newman, Embarrassing Predictions Haunt the Global-Warming Industry.

1970: Ecology professor Kenneth E.F. Watt at the University of California claimed, “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but 11 degrees colder by the year 2000.” Remember… first it was global cooling and the next ice age was upon us…

1971: Stanford University professor Paul Ehrlich, who is perhaps best known for his 1968 book The Population Bomb, predicted, “By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people,” he claimed. “If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” As Calvin Coolidge said, “You lose.”

1988: James Hansen, who headed NASA’s Goddard Institute for three dec­ades was asked by journalist and author Rob Reiss how the “greenhouse effect” would affect the neighborhood outside his window within 20 years (by 2008). “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water,” Hansen claimed. “And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change….” Nope. Manhattan is still there, and is still populated with pigeons.

1989: the Associated Press ran an article headlined: “UN Official Predicts Disaster, Says Greenhouse Effect Could Wipe Some Nations Off Map.” In the piece, the director of the UNEP’s New York office was quoted as claiming that “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000.” Uh huh.

1990: Princeton professor and lead UN IPCC author Michael Oppenheimer, while working as “chief scientist” for the Environmental Defense Fund, predicted by 1995, the “greenhouse effect” would be “desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots.” By 1996, he added, the Platte River of Nebraska “would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers.” Even ten years after this apocalypse was supposed to befall us, the Platte River still flows. I know because I checked on my still working computer.

2000: Senior Research Scientist David Viner, working at the time for the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, told the U.K. Independent that within “a few years,” snowfall would become “a very rare and exciting event” in Britain. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” He was quoted in an article, headlined “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” Anyone who lived through winter 2014-15 may have a few words for Mr Viner.

2001: The IPCC predicted in its 2001 global-warming report, that the planet would see “warmer winters and fewer cold spells, because of climate change…” But then in 2014 White House Science “Czar” John Holdren said, “A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern we can expect to see with increasing frequency, as global warming continues.” Wait a minute! I thought the science was settled!!

2003: A Pentagon report entitled “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security,” was widely cited by global-warming theorists, bureaucrats, and the establishment press as evidence that humanity was facing certain doom. It also served as the foundation for the claim that alleged man-made “climate change” was actually a “national security concern.” Among other outlandish scenarios envisioned in the report over the preceding decade: California flooded with inland seas, parts of the Netherlands “unlivable,” polar ice all but gone in the summers, and surging temperatures. Mass increases in hurricanes, tornadoes, and other natural disasters were supposed to be wreaking havoc across the globe, too. All of that would supposedly spark resource wars and all sorts of other horrors.

2005: The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) warned that imminent sea-level rises, increased hurricanes, and desertification caused by “man-made global warming” would lead to massive population disruptions. In a handy map, the organization highlighted areas that were supposed to be particularly vulnerable in terms of producing “climate refugees.” Especially at risk were regions such as the Caribbean and low-lying Pacific islands, along with coastal areas. The 2005 UNEP predictions claimed that, by 2010, some 50 million “climate refugees” would be frantically fleeing from those regions of the globe. I just spent a week in the Caribbean. It’s still there. Nobody is fleeing. In fact you had to drag me away. Why? Because of all the freakin’ snow in Vermont in April!

2007, 2008, and 2009: Al Gore publicly warned that the North Pole would be “ice-free” in the summer by around 2013 because of alleged “man-made global warming.” Ummm. Nope. Still there. By some accounts growing.

And, as Newman concludes, “By now, anybody who follows “climate” news knows that “global warming” has been on what alarmists call “pause” for 18 years and counting, despite ongoing increases in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The stubborn refusal of temperatures to rise (and accelerate) as forecasted by all of the UN’s 73 “climate models” has discredited the models, the UN, and the alleged “science” behind the computer forecasts. Every single model predicted more warming than has occurred, an atrocious record that defies explanation. Even a monkey rolling the dice or a scam artist pretending to read the future from a crystal ball would have a better record, based only on the laws of probability.”


If you have other similar quotes/predictions that haven’t exactly panned out, please share. We’ll keep the list growing.

{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

Ward Reed May 15, 2015 at 9:31 pm

And then there’s the fact that the latest IPCC detailed report was issued in the fall of 2013. It was marked “preliminary”. Why? Because the detailed report — all the data — had to be conformed to the Executive Summary for Policymakers which had not yet been prepared. This Executive Summary was not prepared by the scientists on the various panels; it was prepared by politicians from more than 175 UN member nations.

How wonderfully scientific! We conform data to agree with politically determined results.


Joseph Froton May 16, 2015 at 8:09 pm

The UN’s AGENDA 21 is all about control, eugenics, of which global warming or now, climate change, fails all scientific measurements as empirical science, ie, bogus!
My investigations show valid evidence that planetary weather & climate is primarily a result of solar activity. Patterns over time aside from volcanoes & asteroids aside follows the sun’s solar flare patterns that can be verified by observing patterns.

Al Gore & Joe Biden look to cash in big time on taxing the right to exist! I’m happy some people are waking up to the scam of global warming. All about taxation without representation.


John May 17, 2015 at 12:45 am

VPIRG has put global warming on the agenda for this year’s collections canvasing. The preprogrammed college student already stopped by my home. Got an earful and no $$ from me.


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